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strange views « Previous | |Next »
July 20, 2004

Both Newspoll and ACNielsen show that the ALP is still hanging on after the distribution of preference, even though its primary vote is continuing to fall and the momentum is favouring the government.

The ACNielsen poll shows the coalition's primary vote rising 2 points to 45 per cent, and the ALP down 2 to 40 per cent. But the two-party preferred vote - the result after preferences are distributed - has Labor leading 52 to 48 per cent, unchanged from a month ago. Newspoll shows the that on a two-party preferred basis the ALP had a lead of 51 to 49 per cent.

Here is the spin by Denis Shanahan in The Australian:


"After two tumultuous weeks - starting with the Labor leader's emotional press conference about his private life - the standing of the major parties has barely changed, with the ALP keeping in touch with the Howard Government."


It should be the other way round. Do we infer that Shanahan lives in an inverted political world?

The significance of the polling means that the Coalition needs to concentrate on increasing its primary vote, since it is losing out heavily on preferences, as 77 per cent of Green voters and 70 per cent of Democrat voters say they will give Labor their preferences. Increasing the primary vote means the Coalition has to appeal to the middle ground. That means picking up the conservative end of the Labor vote.

I wonder how that looks in the marginal seats across the nation?

Does picking up the conservative end of the Labor vote mean the new environment Minister, Senator Campbell, is saying that he will continue the Government's agenda of linking the nation's future power needs to coal and oil and rejecting the global framework for cutting greenhouse gas emissions? Is that why he is saying that the answer to environmental sustainability is successful business.

That sounds like the old mantra that economic growth comes first and the environmental consequences can be patched up by tossing it a bit of money. How does that square with a renewable energy industry? Do we not have the development of a thriving renewable energy industry that will greatly benefit the Australian economy and environment?

What does the Minister see when he flies over the salt scarred landscape in Western Australia en route Perth to Canbera? Dollar signs? A flourishing economy? Or does he look the other way?

| Posted by Gary Sauer-Thompson at 10:19 AM | | Comments (0)
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