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February 1, 2005
A simple but effective representation of the changes in the political economy of the world economic order.
Salih Memecan, Editorial Cartoonist, Turkey.
The new kid on the power block is China, not Japan or the European Economic Union. So we have a multi-polarization of the world economy.Will the United States continue to exercise leadership or gravitate toward self-centered policies?
China is calling for reform of the inequitable world economy. 'Inequitable' is not a word you often hear from Reserve Bank and Treasury officials. Li Ruogu, the Assistant Governor of People's Bank of China, said that:
China strongly urged the developed countries to expedite capital and technology transfers to the developing countries, provide broad market access to the developing countries, and truly implement the Monterrey Consensus. The developed countries should realize that their aid to the developing countries is not a charity or a favor, but a necessary means of correcting the uneven distribution of the benefits of globalization.
The Sino-American friction has its roots less in a "laundry list" of various contentious issues, and more in the more basic question of how the world is to be ordered.
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China's demographics will limit the length of its reign at the top - its labour force will be shrinking in 25 years. I reckon India (which will pass China in total poulation at about the same time, and is younger) will be on top soon after.
Either way, America's unipolar moment is passing. I suspect that the cleverer neocons know (but can't say) that and are attempting to shape the world in America's image in preparation for this transition.