October 26, 2007
Jack Miles in Oil: The sovereignty showdown in Iraq in Asia Times says:
In the 21st century's version of the "Great Game" of 19th century imperialism, the Bush administration made a colossal gamble that Iraq could become a kind of West Germany or South Korea on the Persian Gulf - a federal republic with a robust, oil-exporting economy, a rising standard of living, and a set of US bases that would guarantee lasting American domination of the most resource-strategic region on the planet.
The political half of that gamble has already been lost, but the Bush administration has proven adamantly unwilling to accept the loss of the economic half, the oil half, without a desperate fight.

Alan Moir
The Maliki government of Iraq enjoys international legal recognition and is not without resources when it comes to asserting Iraqi sovereignty over American autonomy within Iraq's borders.
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and fukuyama thought history was over...
what is over, very possibly, is the chance to bring human society under democratic control. the oligarchs have won, not least by neutering 'democracy' through doublethink and newspeak.
of course it's never over while we live, but declining resources and resultant impoverishment of the people generally has resulted in more authoritarian society.
prognosis: bad.