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November 24, 2007
So it is either an ALP landslide, or too close to call, or the Liberals sneak home by 1 or 2 seats. Does anyone actually know? Both Michael Kroger and John Howard are relying on an injected confidence for their precious but elusive 11th-hour momentum--the narrowing! Kroger can even feel the narrowing sweeping across the country! Talk about glimmers of hope. It's just a public face.
The people I asked at the Adelaide Central Market around 7.30 am this morning all said they found the election campaign to be long, uninspiring and boring. Nobody I spoke to had bet their house on Labor. The Liberals must know that they have gone. Nothing they have done during the last year has shifted the polls towards them:
Bill Leak
I voted ALP in the House of Representatives and Nick Xenophon in the Senate. It was an easygoing and relaxed mood outside the booth in the Adelaide electorate, which will be easily retained by the ALP There was little conversation though. Minds had been made up. People were happy
And how many bloggers are there blogging live from the Talley room tonight? None? Some? It looks to be the structured the same as every other election night, with the commentary dominated by the politicians on the phones do their party political spiel as the results dribble in for or against them. When it is going to be broadened out?
The polls, we should remember, were consistently against the the Liberal Party all year. They did not change.That is what is significant. It will depend on the swing in NSW and Queensland.
Geoff Pyror
I'm going to blog live from the wireless apartment in Adelaide whilst watching the ABC. Suzanne is going to a Stoppard play---The Real Thing-- put on by the State Theatre Company and I will be on my own. The election is the real thing.
Update: 7.30 pm
There's a swing on but it is small at this stage and so line ball. The ALP is on track. The swing is around 5.1% --5.5.4%. The seats gained are around 12-14 and the Coalition is behind in other seats. 5 terms is too much. Time for a change.
Two seats in Tasmania--- Bass and Braddon ---are gone, as expected.So what will happen to the Green vote in the Senate? Will Tasmanians decide to go for two Green senators and so male up for the possible loss in NSW?
There is small swing in Victoria:--5.1% ---two seats will be won by the ALP: Deakin and Corangamite. But La Trobe and McEwan are lagging. Mcmillanstays with Liberals. So there will be minimal change in Victoria as expected.
Geoff Pryor
Will Howard hang on. Was Kroger just spinning the line? Hoping for the great escape? Three seats have gone in SA--Kingston and Makin and Wakefield. Sturt is looking sticky, though not Boothby So SA sticks with seats to the ALP as expected.
It is unclear in NSW. There is movement. Eden Monaro is going ALP, as is Lindsay It looks as if Bennelong is looking sticky and may depend on postals Wentworth looks to be held by Turnbull. However, Parramatta, and Page and Robertson are going to the ALP. It's the northern coastal seats that are shifting to the ALP.
It all depends on Queensland. That state looks as if it is going to decide the outcome. Bonner and Dobell It looks as if Dawson has really gone.
The seats are shifting. Moreton is turning to ALP, as is Longman and Page and Leichardt and Blair. Even Petrie The list goes on. Some of the swings look to be huge--around 14%. What is going on? Seachange? Gillard is now upbeat and she is a political pessimist. What does the ALP stand for? Reform? Consensus?
Update: 8.30pm
So it is looking good for the ALP. It's twelve seats gained going to Queensland. It's a 53 % to 48% swing and growing. Anthony Green's prediction is a majority of 22 for the ALP. So Queensland is delivering in spades. Around 10-12 seats at this stage. The gains are needed to hold off the expected losses for the ALP in Swan, Stirling and Cowan but may have gained Hasluck. There is a swing to the Liberals in WA but it wont have much impact given the swing in NSW and Queensland.
The losses are happening in WA. The ALP can win without WA, and win easily. This is a big victory.
The Greens aren't doing all that well apart from Victoria despite Bob Brown's upbeat account of the ALP being elected on Green preferences. Yet the Rudd ALP is opposed to the stopping the pulp mil or conserving the old growth native forests. The Green spin is shard to take.
It's at least 10 seats, possibly 16 seats the ALP has gained in Queensland. But the ABC tally room is a bloody disaster. It should be dumped. What purpose does all the cheering serve? Where are the bloggers? Where is the analysis about which parts of the electorate have shifted?
Update: 10 pm
So the ALP has won. And won well. The Liberals are really done for. Burnt toast. It's a 22 plus seats majority. Champagne time! Howard is about to concede. Nick Minchin is talking about the heritage of Howard and he has finally conceded that it was Workchoices that did them over.
Geoff Pyror
Minchin says that we ought to pay tribute to Howard and his political career. I concur. He deserves our respect, even though I've deeply disagreed with his policies both foreign and domestic. What do the Liberals stand for now? They have no sense of the future>
So what's happened to the Senate? Minor changes? Liberals retain control until June 2008? They will block for sure. Will there be a swing to the Liberals in the Senate?
Howard is about to concede at the Wentworth Hotel. The scene there must be akin to a political wake. Jeanette is not happy. Howard has been repudiated, big time. But she must have known the Liberals would lose. How long before Howard resigns from the leadership of the Liberal Party? Will Costello take the poisoned chalice? Howard 's speech is a signing off on his political career. It's a bitter sweet moment -he's accepted that he has probably lost his seat in Bennelong (there's a 5.2% swing to Maxine McKew) along with losing Government.
Alan Moir
The Liberals--Nick Minchin-- are talking about being responsible in opposition. Oh yeah? They won't like this defeat. They will be bitter at being an oppositional rump. Do they have a vision of the future? Is Costello the main to break with the past and deliver a view of Australia in the 21st century?
Update: 11 pm
It's all over. The Liberals are history. The Nationals have lost 3 seats. It's one of the great Labor victories. Suzanne has returned from the play. The champagne is opened and it sure tastes great. A long black cloud has moved away. The conservative ascendancy has gone. It's a new political order that has come into being. I wonder what that means for Adelaide's future in the warmed up world of climate change?
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There are enough live bloggers to keep the fans happy.
I hope Nan's holding up ok.