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February 2, 2008
I'm pessimistic about Afghanistan. Despite overwhelming US and international military might, things are going badly awry in Afghanistan. It looks as if it is becoming a failed state that would become a safe haven for the Taliban and al-Qaeda. So why are we Australians in Afghanistan? What are we trying to do there?
Steve Bell
The Taliban and al-Qaeda are different. Syed Saleem Shahzad remarks at Asia Times Online that:
The common perception is that all Arabs fighting in Afghanistan belong to al-Qaeda. This is not the reality. Arabs are present in Afghanistan in several groups, and not necessarily part of al-Qaeda, as with Libi [Abu Laith al-Libi]. He did cooperate with al-Qaeda but always took independent decisions. He was not known to be part of any international terror operations as he was fully committed to the fight against NATO in Afghanistan and to training fighters in modern techniques of guerrilla warfare.
He goes on to say that though NATO's commander in eastern Afghanistan, Major General David Rodriguez, recently said he did not expect the Taliban to mount a spring offensive this year as they wanted to focus their efforts on destabilizing the Pakistani government, this is is not the case.
Mullah Omar made it clear by "sacking" Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud - who wanted to concentrate on Pakistan - that all efforts would be aimed at Afghanistan....Apart from Mehsud and a few other groups, all jihadi groups in the tribal areas have now struck peace deals with Pakistani security and are regrouping for the spring offensive.
So we have local resistance to foreign occupation, just like Iraq. An insurgency with a counter-insurgency response by the US. This is the world's biggest debtor country and it is continuing to wield influence on the basis of military prowess alone. Has the US, as the sole global power, reached its limits in Afghanistan? Have the neo-conservatives in the White House and the Pentagon outsmarted themselves in so far as they have failed to address the problem of how to finance their schemes for wars in the Middle East and global hegemony.
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The funny thing is that whoever holds Bin Laden holds the world.
As much as he can turn terrorism on he can turn it off.
If he is alive he is being held.
He is a valuable commodity and maybe he has been traded many times since the start of Iraq?