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February 6, 2008
Super Tuesday. 24 states will hold primaries, caucuses or party conventions with over 3000 delegates up for grabs. The polls and the pundits indicate that John McCain will become the Republican nomination for President (crowned, in fact). The Democrats will continue to slug it out. The Democrat delegates are awarded proportionally, which means that neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama is likely to score a breakaway victory.
Though Obama has the Big Mo, the pundits are saying that Democratic nomination will be "possibly decided in March, possibly decided in April, possibly not decided until the convention.
Alan Moir
Does that mean even more Clinton hating. Does that mean more squalls of anger on the right against the prospect of John McCain as the Republican presidential nominee. The conservative Republican base does not feel he is a Republican. He is a liberal-moderate. The ailing economy and the morass in Iraq means that the GOP is generally in the pits with American voters. The criticisms of Obama in the media are few nd far between, but Paul Krugman has reservations about Obama's health plan, as it would leave more people uninsured than the Clinton plan.
In a long contest----going all the way to the convention-- Obama might have an advantage. He has the momentum and now has more money than Clinton. And this is not because it's a close race on Super Tuesday. Even if one candidate were to win every available delegate, they would still fall well short of the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. Is momentum the key? According to this account on Talking Points Memo:
Obama had huge momentum entering New Hampshire, and lost to Hillary, whose momentum mounted in Nevada, setting the stage for her historic rout in South Carolina. It turns out that voters actually pay attention to what candidates say and do on the trail. Winning in Iowa gave Obama a boost, but not enough to overcome Hillary’s sudden willingness to display her essential humanity. Similarly, all the momentum in the world wasn’t enough to compensate for the Clintons’ willingness to launch slimy attacks, and the voter disgust it engendered.
The difference between the Republican and Democrat primaries is that many Republican caucuses and primaries are winner-take-all, whilst the Democrats are done on a proportional basis. California is the decisive battle ground.
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It would seem that we are going to be in this for the long haul throughout all of 2008. I think you're right about feeling a tad depressed when we consider what we have to look forward to; more rabid attacks on Hillary Clinton, a replay of eight years ago in the form of John McCain, and the prospect that it will all end in the tragedy of a third consecutive Republican administration.
Let's hope Obama at least gets the chance to give a few more rousing speeches.