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February 11, 2008
Obama wins Nebraska. Obama wins Louisiana. Obama wins Washington. And Obama wins the US Virgin Islands. Obama is riding a surging wave, and he is raising more money than Clinton. If the rest of the primary season is to be a long stretch of trench warfare and there is no one better at trench warfare than the Clintons, then it sure looks like the waves are now breaking for Obama's insurgent campaign.
There is a silence around the issues raised by this Peter Brooks cartoon. The Iraq war has faded, along with CIA torture. Americans are otherwise preoccupied these days.
Obama wins Maine's caucus. It's all Obama. On Tuesday we have the crucial Maryland and Virginia primaries. Will the pattern repeat; namely Obama does well in caucuses whilst Clinton does well in primaries? It is assumed that Obama will own the rest of the month for the most part until he runs up against the contests in early March in Rhode Island, Texas and Ohio.
If, as seems likely, the race goes down to the wire, then an undemocratic elite contingent of superdelegates--the party establishment of unpledged party operatives and elected officials not chosen by primary voters--could play a decisive role. The party establishment's favorite at this stage is Hillary Clinton.
The dynamic of the race is changing and it is beginning to look a matter of whether a hard-won close victory by Obama can be blocked by the Clintons' super-delegates. However, the superdelegates committed to Clinton could well jump ship, and rally around Obama, if he wins enough primaries and establishment support.
Both Clinton and Obama are saying that government is not the problem, unchecked corporate capitalism is, and that the era of big government isn't over. However, there are differences between Clinton and Obama on how they would run the government.
Surprise surprise. On the Republican side John McCain, only days after declaring himself to be the Republican nominee, suffered defeat in Kansas and Louisiana at the hands of Mike Huckabee. Yet another sign of Republican dissatisfaction with McCain? Huckabee trails McCain the overall race for delegates by a long way:---John McCain has a commanding lead in the delegate race with 719. Huckabee had 234. It will take 1,191 delegates to secure the Republican nomination. Will the GOP would rally behind McCain in the end.
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Gary
McCain did poorly in Kansas and Louisiana, which are prime Mike Huckabee territory. So you can understand McCain's losses there. But he also did poorly in Washington state.
McCain will win the Republican nomination, but he looks like a goner in the general election this November, given the reservations and hostility of the Republican base to him, and the Democrats having the stardust factor.