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as the credit dries up « Previous | |Next »
October 4, 2008

In the wake of the US market meltdown it is not just superannuates who are rethinking their situation by considering working longer. The debt ladened American consumer is also burdened with falling house prices, rising unemployment and reduced access to credit because of the tightenness in credit markets. Debt has been the enabler of the American economy and it has been blown on consumption. It will be more difficult for Americans to walk away from their credit debts as easily as they can for their houses.

retirement.jpg Tanberg

In Australia credit has become tight, prices are falling at the top end of the housing market as well as western Sydney, and homebuyers and consumers are being squeezed as the flow of cheap and available credit dries up.

| Posted by Gary Sauer-Thompson at 2:41 PM | | Comments (10)


australians would have to be in a similar position surely? We've been living beyond our means for yonks and not producing a hell of a lot.

I understand that exports like coal have keep The Economy afloat, but how do those sorts of national accounts things help with personal debt? I don't see how coal exports will help people who live on credit cards.

I plan to work till I expire.

Our neighbours are talking about vegie gardens and chook pens. Economics types keep saying everything will be ok, there's no recession, blah, blah, but it's not convincing everyone.

I think the combination of things getting dearer over the last while combined with the recent financial crisis has given people the mind set that things will get tight over the next couple of years. There will be no talking them out of it and it seems to be being passed around like a virus. Essentially it is true but the talk and the admission by folk seems to add to the slowing. The couriers are saying things are very slow. Boxes aren't getting moved around as much. Thats the proof.

the boom from Quarry Australia selling rocks to China gives the illusion that incomes and house prices will continue to increase so that people can afford to max their cards, take out personal loans and borrow won the equity of their house. In Australia average household debt is up there with that of Britain and the US.

Alas house prices are falling in many parts of our cities. It is spotty in terms of its distribution but it is spreading slowly.

It's not looking good for the Gold Coast with its dependence on credit-driven development and tourism. Jim Raptis getting into financial trouble was a bad sign.

On one hand, the gloomy outlook would add to the slowing, but on the other hand, it's better to be prepared for the worst.

We haven't seen any impact on tradies in the building industry yet, but they're worried.

In his latest book---The New Paradigm For Financial Markets--- George Soros reckons that the global economy is caught in a commodities bubble, not just a housing bubble. The commodities boom is supposed to be Australia's get-out-of-jail card.

There are a number of factors that insulate the gold coast that don't apply to places. So I think we will mostly all trade out of the gloom. Many will fall but what the gold coast is will get us through.

I think most of us in the western world have been caught generally in a "must have bubble" and if you were to blame anyone it would be the ad agencies for doing too well a job. At some point after about 2000 we all moved from a must have one day to a must have now mentality. So now like a fat man that has spent too long gorging it is now time to run on the tread mill.
America is in a different position to us as it has been poorly managed by the Bush administration and will go into a recession. I think that a depression is a large prolonged recession so it depends on Obama how long it lasts.
Australia on the other hand was generally well managed and while it is true that services/infrastructure were run down at the expense of other things the present government is in a good position to be able to distribute money around to keep things moving and people employed.

I'm less optimistic. What the Gold Coast is, is up to its neck in debt and to a large extent still living in Joh's developer heaven. If Anna Bligh gets her way all that lovely infrastructure money that creates so many jobs and gets everything moving again will go to coal distribution, which isn't us.

We're not totally isolated from the rest of the country, but we've been seeing the uneven distribution of benefits and losses for a while now. NSW is in recession while WA and Qld boom. Some regions do better than others.

One of the things that is good for us is that people still want to come here.

As for Anna...... "Dead man walking"