October 6, 2008
McCain now faces an uphill task, despite Palin being the bright, shiny object of Republican male desire and family values. America is becoming a different nation: the economy is on the skids , the empire in retreat and Wall Street tanks. Will McCain and Palin play the role of the attractive bully and retain the hope of Republican Main Street and Fox News?
Bromely
The Guardian reports that the economic crisis has led to a haemorrhaging of Republican support over the last two weeks. Polls and reports from Democratic and Republican campaign staff on the ground suggest that a seismic shift is taking place in the electoral map in favour of the Democrats. Obama is making inroads into states once regarded as safe Republican areas, while the number of states in which McCain is competitive is narrowing, mainly because of the Wall Street collapse.
I'm not so sure that it is that cut and dried. McCain can still win narrowly--like Bush did. And even if Obama wins we can expect little more than the restoration of Clintonian neoliberalism behind all that rhetoric of change. Still, that is better than the 4-8 years of the Bush Republicans.
So what then for McCain? A turn in tactics? To negative adverts? A smear campaign? To shift the campaign discussion away from substantive issues, such as the economy or health care? McCain needs to try and divert attention from the economy as Obama is riding the electoral wave
There isn't a single 2004 Democratic state in play now -- New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota are all showing double digit leads for Obama. Of the 2004 Red states,Obama leads in Iowa, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia are all clear of 5% for Obama as an average across all polls, and second tier gains such as North Carolina and Missouri are showing a tie-2% lead.
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It looks like sh*t creak, but the canoe doesn't look like it's made from barb wire. Perhaps they still have hope.