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June 21, 2012
As we know the structure of the media industry is rapidly changing as the shift from print to the internet due to the digital revolution deepens, and the long term shift from newspapers to pay television continues. The good days for mass circulation newspapers are over, and they are never coming back.
The Fairfax news about shrinking and staff cuts, highlights the decline of print media whilst News Ltd moving to increase its shareholding of Fox Sport and Foxtel (cable television) highlights the shift to pay television by buying out Consolidated Media Holdings.
News Ltd remains bullish about its tabloid newspapers even as they cut costs through consolidation (its divisions in eastern Australia will shrink from 19 to five) and it snap up the independent voice of Business Spectator to remove competition to the paywalls. This concentrates more media ownership in fewer hands--Australia has some of the most concentrated media ownership in the Western world--- and is another step in News Ltd's desire to dominate.
Murdoch is considered foreign, so News Ltd's proposal to buy James Packer's Consolidated Media Holdings is subject to Foreign Investment Review Board approval. On the strict FIRB criteria it's hard to see how it could be knocked back. The deal would also require regulatory approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. But given that News already has 25 per cent of Foxtel and management control it is hard to see how the ACCC would present much resistance.
The chief obstacle facing Murdoch's takover is Kerry Stokes, who owns 25 per cent of Consolidated Media. Will Stokes sell, given his attempts to create his own pay television operation many years back?
If digital is the future of news media, then how do Fairfax and News Ltd make money from their growing digital audience? It's a more pressing question for Fairfax than News Ltd, which is more of a multimedia company with lots of synergies and part of a global media empire. Lifting its stake in Foxtel brings News Corp's Australian business into line with its global businesses, where News Corp is primarily a television business. More than 80% of its $5 billion annual profit comes from cable pay-TV) and movie making and its ambition is to create the world's first multi-platform media operator available from paper to web to TV to iPhone to iPad.
In this new media landscape the ABC will continue to provide a comprehensive news service across all media platforms for free, for reasons related to equitable access, national reach, and the information needs of citizens. Since online advertising will not cover the costs of a digital newspaper, the turn to paywalls is seen to be necessary by Fairfax. However, Fairfax will need to provide quality journalism, if they want their paywall-protected sites---The Age and SMH --- to survive.
Unfortunately, the future of the mediascape in Australia looks to be one where the combination of market dominance, power, fear, political influence, inadequate policing and feeble regulation becomes self-reinforcing.
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Communications Minister Stephen Conroy is firming his position in favour of a media ownership public interest test to replace the existing bans on further concentration.
The latter is the “two out of three” rule that limits Rupert Murdoch’s News Ltd or Kerry Stokes’s Seven West Media from buying other media companies. Media companies are currently prevented from owning free-to-air television, newspapers and radio assets in the same market.