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August 13, 2012
The independent expert panel on asylum seekers will report today. It is headed by former Defence chief Angus Houston and has a refugee expert, Paris Aristotle, and Howard government diplomat and former foreign affairs chief, Michael L'Estrange. Presumably it's recommendations will be based on good research and these will support off shore processing in some form.
But in what form? Will it be able to find a way through or around the impasse or Mexican standoff between Malaysia or Nauru? Do both? Will we continue to have gridlock in Canberra on this issue after the report is made public and the Gillard Government responds?

David Rowe
Will it propose the re-imposition of temporary protection visas? Hopefully not. Will it approach the asylum seeker issue from the perspective of border protection designed to deter and contain asylum seekers. Hopefully they will reject the Coalition's "turn boats back" as a slogan.
Or will its perspective be wider and its recommendations outline steps for a viable regional solution in the Asia Pacific?
What became clear over the parliamentary winter break was that clear over the winter break that neither the Opposition nor the Greens is likely to shift from their entrenched positions and that their boundary lines are set in concrete. Our way is the only way. So the Gillard Government is going to have to compromise due to the politics of fear, and that will mean a further shift to the right.
Australian could increase its annual refugee and humanitarian resettlement program and seriously consider a doubling of the current intake.
Update
The independent expert panel's report is public. It has recommended that Australia process asylum seekers in Papua New Guinea and Nauru as part of a "comprehensive regional network".
The people swap deal with Malaysia should "be built on further" rather than discarded out of hand. If it was to work, protection measures and safety guarantees for the fate of asylum seekers sent from Australia to Malaysia were needed. The argument in favour of offshore processing was that onshore processing encourages people to jump on boats.
The panel has abandoned the language of deterrence in favour of a more nuanced incentives and disincentives approach and it accepts the evidence that people seek asylum in Australia because there are few, if any, feasible alternatives in transit countries. The journey is the only option weighed against the alternative of decades in legal and social limbo in transit countries.
The Gillard Government says that it will reintroduce its migration bill, with amendments, to the Parliament tomorrow. How is that going to resolve the gridlock? Since the Greens have rejected the offshore processing recommendations, the only other option is a compromise with the Coalition who up to now have refused to compromise on their deterrence approach.
Update 2
The Coalition, it appears, remains opposed to Malaysia as a platform for regional processing albeit with increased monitoring and protections. Regional processing in places like Malaysia has been red lighted by Morrison. They have little interest in Houston's long term strategy of devising a regional processing framework because it holds that Nauru (and Manus Island) alone is an answer.
The Coalition are cherry picking the package to suit their stopping the boats line whilst saying that the Gillard Government was responsible for the loss of life at sea and that they were too incompetent to reopen Nauru.
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"their [Greens and Coaltion] boundary lines are set in concrete. Our way is the only way"
So is the politics of deterrence.The definite mandatory detention of all so-called “unauthorised” arrivals, was introduced in 1992. refugees and asylum seekers are dressed in the clothes of criminals, and national sovereignty has become the core focus in Australia's response to forced migration.