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January 27, 2009
The news out of China these days is bleak. It is bad news for 'the China will save us crowd' in the mainstream media. The signs say that the boom is over and it won't return for many years. That is not good news for Australia where, as Alan Kohler points out in Business Spectator the rise in unemployment is still in its infancy.
Economic growth is slowing. China's export markets have collapsed and its exports are down around 30%. People are saying that these export markets--the US primarily--- will remain depressed for 4-5 years. That leaves China with massive industrial over-capacity. China's domestic demand is not capable of absorbing overproduction. So there will a deep recession in China, with factory closures, bankruptcies, and surging unemployment. Surging unemployment means social unrest in China.
Therein lies the structural imbalance problem--too great a reliance on exports. When the United States gets sick so does China. China's proposed infrastructure stimulus package does not address that imbalance. It will create jobs for unemployed Chinese workers and boost the Chinese construction industry, but it won't replace the fall in export demand with increased domestic demand. Nor will the Government's old policy of boosting the Chinese export sector by making its products cheaper( through tax incentives, subsidies, lower interest rates and using its exchange rate regime as a de facto subsidy) increase consumer demand in the US or Europe for low value Chinese goods.
There is rising unemployment in the US and Europe. Until consumers in the developed Western countries start spending again, China's exports will continue to fall, no matter how heavily subsidized the export sector is.
So the optimistic scenario, that the economic growth in emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, Russia etc) would prevent a deepening global recession/contraction that has been caused by an implosion of Wall Street finance does not look plausible.
There is increasing anti-Chinese rhetoric in Washington. It is in China's national interest to reject the anti-Chinese rhetoric and to criticize the shift to protectionism in industrial economies.
Update
Business Spectator is conducting a national conversation about the financial /economic crisis in Australia. Good on them. Someone has to start talking plainly about what is happening now that 'the China will save us crowd' have been left naked.
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Alan Kohler says in Business Spectator that:
The rationale for this denial Kohler says has been that our banks are in good shape, so we'll be okay; or China will save us; or our house prices are not like those in the UK and the US and won't decline because there is a shortage of them here; or there's nothing we can do anyway.