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June 27, 2011
The message from the Liberals is that Julia Gillard will be gone by Christmas if they keep their collective foot on her neck. In the cartoonish or soap opera version of politics fostered by the hard rightwing faction of the Liberal Party, and supported by the Canberra Press Gallery, Gillard is the bad ''girl'', the liar, the fool who doesn't deserve to be PM. The Liberals are only one vote from government.
Even though Gillard Labor has big problems---the polls say that if an election were held next week the Coalition would win with a thumping majority---- I cannot see the Gillard Government falling over in the short term. It will go full term, barring defections, resignations, or deaths. It will use up its political capital as it continues to plod on with an agenda that is basically the reform platform outlined to the Australian people in 2007.
What we do have is a knock down political fight over the introduction of a carbon tax. Its a fight to the death for the political right that is supported by Big Coal and its ideologues and the Gillard Government is under siege.
The carbon tax is the Right's chance to destroy what they see see as the bastion of social engineers on the left of the political spectrum who favour a high-taxing, big-government with nanny state tentacles that reaches into every aspect of our lives.
The political right's tactic is one of triangulation --- that is lifting the political gaze above the Left-Right battle zone to a target that can galvanise widespread support so that their anti-carbon tax politics is no longer seen as defending a rather nasty industry protecting its short term interests. Politics is about winning and warfare and any political weapon will do---including bumper sticker politics--- if it can harm the enemy.
The climate crisis conflict is a struggle over the identity of Australia---the old one powered by energy fossil fuel with its greenhouse gas pollution and the new low carbon one. It's a political struggle over decarbonizing the economy and society. For those representing the old order green policies are only ever a burden and never an opportunity, no matter how clearly Germany and China think otherwise.
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you could be brutal and say that the climate change deniers who hang out in the Australian's pages and who vote for the Coalition will start to die off.
trouble is we cannot afford to wait for the ranks of the climate deniers to be thinned out by natural attrition.